Do All Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 Disease Benefit from Adding Tocilizumab to Glucocorticoids? A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines recommend the tocilizumab use in patients with a CRP of >7.5 mg/dL. We aimed to estimate the causal effect of glucocorticoids + tocilizumab on mortality overall and after stratification for PaO2/FiO2 ratio and CRP levels. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. The primary endpoint was day 28 mortality. Survival analysis was conducted to estimate the conditional and average causal effect of glucocorticoids + tocilizumab vs. glucocorticoids alone using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models with a time-varying variable for the intervention. The hypothesis of the existence of effect measure modification by CRP and PaO2/FiO2 ratio was tested by including an interaction term in the model. RESULTS: In total, 992 patients, median age 69 years, 72.9% males, 597 (60.2%) treated with monotherapy, and 395 (31.8%), adding tocilizumab upon respiratory deterioration, were included. At BL, the two groups differed for median values of CRP (6 vs. 7 mg/dL; p < 0.001) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio (276 vs. 235 mmHg; p < 0.001). In the unadjusted analysis, the mortality was similar in the two groups, but after adjustment for key confounders, a significant effect of glucocorticoids + tocilizumab was observed (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.38-0.90). Although the study was not powered to detect interactions (p = 0.41), there was a signal for glucocorticoids + tocilizumab to have a larger effect in subsets, especially participants with high levels of CRP at intensification. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm that glucocorticoids + tocilizumab vs. glucocorticoids alone confers a survival benefit only in patients with a CRP > 7.5 mg/dL prior to treatment initiation and the largest effect for a CRP > 15 mg/dL. Large randomized studies are needed to establish an exact cut-off for clinical use.

First and second waves among hospitalised patients with COVID-19 with severe pneumonia: a comparison of 28-day mortality over the 1-year pandemic in a tertiary university hospital in Italy.

OBJECTIVE: The first COVID-19-19 epidemic wave was over the period of February-May 2020. Since 1 October 2020, Italy, as many other European countries, faced a second wave. The aim of this analysis was to compare the 28-day mortality between the two waves among COVID-19 hospitalised patients. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. Standard survival analysis was performed to compare all-cause mortality within 28 days after hospital admission in the two waves. Kaplan-Meier curves as well as Cox regression model analysis were used. The effect of wave on risk of death was shown by means of HRs with 95% CIs. A sensitivity analysis around the impact of the circulating variant as a potential unmeasured confounder was performed. SETTING: University Hospital of Modena, Italy. Patients admitted to the hospital for severe COVID-19 pneumonia during the first (22 February-31 May 2020) and second (1 October-31 December 2020) waves were included. RESULTS: During the two study periods, a total of 1472 patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia were admitted to our hospital, 449 during the first wave and 1023 during the second. Median age was 70 years (IQR 56-80), 37% women, 49% with PaO2/FiO2 <250 mm Hg, 82% with ≥1 comorbidity, median duration of symptoms was 6 days. 28-day mortality rate was 20.0% (95% CI 16.3 to 23.7) during the first wave vs 14.2% (95% CI 12.0 to 16.3) in the second (log-rank test p value=0.03). After including key predictors of death in the multivariable Cox regression model, the data still strongly suggested a lower 28-day mortality rate in the second wave (aHR=0.64, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.90, p value=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In our hospitalised patients with COVID-19 with severe pneumonia, the 28-day mortality appeared to be reduced by 36% during the second as compared with the first wave. Further studies are needed to identify factors that may have contributed to this improved survival.

Development of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular events: an analysis of clinical features and risk factors from a single hospital retrospective study.

Cardiovascular complications after a SARS-CoV-2 infection are a phenomenon of relevant scientific interest. The aim of this study was to analyze the onset of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular events in patients hospitalized in a tertiary care center. This is a retrospective study conducted on patients hospitalized over a period of three months. The patients were older than 18 years of age and had a diagnosis of COVID-19 infection confirmed from a nasopharyngeal swab sample. Anamnestic and clinical-laboratory data were collected. Cardiovascular events at 30 days were defined as follows: arrhythmias, myocardial infarction, myocarditis, and pulmonary embolism. Univariate analysis (Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test, as appropriate) and multivariate analysis (multinomial logistic regression) were applied to the data. A total of 394 patients were included; they were mostly males and had a median age of 65.5 years. Previous cardiovascular disease was present in 14.7% of patients. Oxygen therapy was required for 77.9%, and 53% received anticoagulant therapy. The overall 30-day mortality was 20.3%. A cardiovascular event developed in 15.7% of the subjects. These were mainly pulmonary embolism (9.4%), followed by arrhythmias (3.3%), myocardial infarction (2.3%), and myocarditis (0.8%). Patients who developed cardiovascular events upon univariate analysis were significantly older, with major comorbidities, a more compromised respiratory situation, and a higher mortality rate. Multivariate analysis revealed independent factors that were significantly associated with the development of cardiovascular events: hypertension, endotracheal intubation, and age older than 75 years. In patients with COVID-19, the development of a cardiovascular event occurs quite frequently and is mainly seen in elderly subjects with comorbidities (especially hypertension) in the presence of a severe respiratory picture.

Development and validation of a prediction model for tocilizumab failure in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this secondary analysis of the TESEO cohort is to identify, early in the course of treatment with tocilizumab, factors associated with the risk of progressing to mechanical ventilation and death and develop a risk score to estimate the risk of this outcome according to patients' profile. METHODS: Patients with COVID-19 severe pneumonia receiving standard of care + tocilizumab who were alive and free from mechanical ventilation at day 6 after treatment initiation were included in this retrospective, multicenter cohort study. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of mechanical ventilation or death by day-28 from treatment initiation and ß-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Secondary outcome was mortality. Patients with the same inclusion criteria as the derivation cohort from 3 independent hospitals were used as validation cohort. RESULTS: 266 patients treated with tocilizumab were included. By day 28 of hospital follow-up post treatment initiation, 40 (15%) underwent mechanical ventilation or died [26 (10%)]. At multivariable analysis, sex, day-4 PaO2/FiO2 ratio, platelets and CRP were independently associated with the risk of developing the study outcomes and were used to generate the proposed risk score. The accuracy of the score in AUC was 0.80 and 0.70 in internal validation and test for the composite endpoint and 0.92 and 0.69 for death, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our score could assist clinicians in identifying, early after tocilizumab administration, patients who are likely to progress to mechanical ventilation or death, so that they could be selected for eventual rescue therapies.

Dynamic angiopoietin-2 assessment predicts survival and chronic course in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

This study examined the association between dynamic angiopoietin-2 assessment and COVID-19 short- and long-term clinical course. We included consecutive hospitalized patients from 1 February to 31 May 2020 with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 2 Italian tertiary referral centers (derivation cohort, n = 187 patients; validation cohort, n = 62 patients). Serum biomarker levels were measured by sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Lung tissue from 9 patients was stained for angiopoietin-2, Tie2, CD68, and CD34. Cox model was used to identify risk factors for mortality and nonresolving pulmonary condition. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to assess the accuracy of 3- and 10-day angiopoietin-2 for in-hospital mortality and nonresolving pulmonary condition, respectively. Three-day angiopoietin-2 increase of at least twofold from baseline was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality by multivariate analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 6.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.85-24.19; P = .004) with AUROC = 0.845 (95% CI, 0.725-0.940). Ten-day angiopoietin-2 of at least twofold from baseline was instead significantly associated with nonresolving pulmonary condition by multivariate analysis (HR, 5.33; 95% CI, 1.34-11.77; P ≤ .0001) with AUROC = 0.969 (95% CI, 0.919-1.000). Patients with persistent elevation of 10-day angiopoietin-2 levels showed severe reticular interstitial thickening and fibrous changes on follow-up computed tomography scans. Angiopoietin-2 and Tie2 were diffusely colocalized in small-vessel endothelia and alveolar new vessels and macrophages. Angiopoietin-2 course is strongly associated with COVID-19 in-hospital mortality and nonresolving pulmonary condition. Angiopoietin-2 may be an early and useful predictor of COVID-19 clinical course, and it could be a relevant part of disease pathogenesis. Angiopoietin-2 blockade may be a COVID-19 treatment option.

Better prognosis in females with severe COVID-19 pneumonia: possible role of inflammation as potential mediator.

OBJECTIVES: Sex differences in COVID-19 severity and mortality have been described. Key aims of this analysis were to compare the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and mortality by sex and to explore whether variation in specific biomarkers could mediate this difference. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational cohort study among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. A survival analysis was conducted to compare time to the composite endpoint of IMV or death according to sex. Interaction was formally tested to compare the risk difference by sex in sub-populations. Mediation analysis with a binary endpoint IMV or death (yes/no) by day 28 of follow-up for a number of inflammation/coagulation biomarkers in the context of counterfactual prediction was also conducted. RESULTS: Among 415 patients, 134 were females (32%) and 281 males (67%), median age 66 years (IQR 54-77). At admission, females showed a significantly less severe clinical and respiratory profiles with a higher PaO2/FiO2 (254 mmHg vs. 191 mmHg; p 0.023). By 28 days from admission, 49.2% (95% CI 39.6-58.9%) of males vs. 31.7% (17.9-45.4%) of females underwent IMV or death (log-rank p < 0.0001) and this amounted to a difference in terms of HR of 0.40 (0.26-0.63, p 0.0001). The area under the curve in C-reactive protein (CRP) over the study period appeared to explain 85% of this difference in risk by sex. DISCUSSION: Our analysis confirms a difference in the risk of COVID-19 clinical progression by sex and provides a hypothesis for potential mechanisms leading to this. Specifically, CRP showed a predominant role to mediate the difference in risk by sex.

Marked T cell activation, senescence, exhaustion and skewing towards TH17 in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

The immune system of patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 is severely impaired. Detailed investigation of T cells and cytokine production in patients affected by COVID-19 pneumonia are urgently required. Here we show that, compared with healthy controls, COVID-19 patients' T cell compartment displays several alterations involving naïve, central memory, effector memory and terminally differentiated cells, as well as regulatory T cells and PD1+CD57+ exhausted T cells. Significant alterations exist also in several lineage-specifying transcription factors and chemokine receptors. Terminally differentiated T cells from patients proliferate less than those from healthy controls, whereas their mitochondria functionality is similar in CD4+ T cells from both groups. Patients display significant increases of proinflammatory or anti-inflammatory cytokines, including T helper type-1 and type-2 cytokines, chemokines and galectins; their lymphocytes produce more tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interferon-γ, interleukin (IL)-2 and IL-17, with the last observation implying that blocking IL-17 could provide a novel therapeutic strategy for COVID-19.

Tocilizumab in patients with severe COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: No therapy is approved for COVID-19 pneumonia. The aim of this study was to assess the role of tocilizumab in reducing the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation and death in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who received standard of care treatment. METHODS: This retrospective, observational cohort study included adults (≥18 years) with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who were admitted to tertiary care centres in Bologna and Reggio Emilia, Italy, between Feb 21 and March 24, 2020, and a tertiary care centre in Modena, Italy, between Feb 21 and April 30, 2020. All patients were treated with the standard of care (ie, supplemental oxygen, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, antiretrovirals, and low molecular weight heparin), and a non-randomly selected subset of patients also received tocilizumab. Tocilizumab was given either intravenously at 8 mg/kg bodyweight (up to a maximum of 800 mg) in two infusions, 12 h apart, or subcutaneously at 162 mg administered in two simultaneous doses, one in each thigh (ie, 324 mg in total), when the intravenous formulation was unavailable. The primary endpoint was a composite of invasive mechanical ventilation or death. Treatment groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis after adjusting for sex, age, recruiting centre, duration of symptoms, and baseline Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. FINDINGS: Of 1351 patients admitted, 544 (40%) had severe COVID-19 pneumonia and were included in the study. 57 (16%) of 365 patients in the standard care group needed mechanical ventilation, compared with 33 (18%) of 179 patients treated with tocilizumab (p=0·41; 16 [18%] of 88 patients treated intravenously and 17 [19%] of 91 patients treated subcutaneously). 73 (20%) patients in the standard care group died, compared with 13 (7%; p<0·0001) patients treated with tocilizumab (six [7%] treated intravenously and seven [8%] treated subcutaneously). After adjustment for sex, age, recruiting centre, duration of symptoms, and SOFA score, tocilizumab treatment was associated with a reduced risk of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (adjusted hazard ratio 0·61, 95% CI 0·40-0·92; p=0·020). 24 (13%) of 179 patients treated with tocilizumab were diagnosed with new infections, versus 14 (4%) of 365 patients treated with standard of care alone (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with tocilizumab, whether administered intravenously or subcutaneously, might reduce the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation or death in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. FUNDING: None.